The Real Economy: February 2025

Regime change in the global economy

The global economy is going through a fundamental change as the policies that governed international trade and finance give way to a new order, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the February issue of The Real Economy.

The era of easy money is over, replaced by a new era characterized by scarce capital, higher inflation and higher interest rates, he writes. For middle market businesses, this new period is forcing a rethinking of how to allocate capital and compete on the global stage.

Also in this issue, Brusuelas examines the potential impact of the Trump administration’s proposed policies, from higher tariffs to renewed tax cuts to debt-financed government spending. All of these policies could lead to higher growth, but also elevated inflation and a rising dollar. Many emerging economies with significant debt are facing a particular challenge as their currencies depreciate in the face of the rising dollar. 

The regime change that is occurring in real time across the U.S. and global economies is going to upend policy frameworks that have characterized the past generation.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

Finally, RSM’s Jason Alexander and Katie Landy offer manufacturers an effective strategy to allocate capital while managing technical debt.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the February issue:

Perspective
Rising rates and volatility signal a regime change in the global economy
The era of low inflation and low interest rates has given way to a new regime of scarce capital and higher inflation.

Article
Working capital strategies for manufacturers while managing technical debt
Three key capital strategies that can help manufacturers while managing technical debt.

Industry spotlight: Manufacturing

In today’s challenging economic environment, manufacturers must adapt to rising interest rates and increasing capital costs by implementing a well-rounded capital allocation strategy. With enterprise value becoming increasingly important, companies need to revisit or develop strong working capital strategies to manage investments and technical debt effectively and fuel growth. Key elements such as cash flow prioritization, strategic use of debt and cost management form the foundation for achieving operational efficiency and financial stability. 

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Tariffs, trade and other economic trends

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the latest economic trends affecting middle market businesses.

Friday, March 14, 2025 | 1 p.m. ET

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The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

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Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.